Discussing inflation at the 6% level and its historical returns with Wealth E&P
November 22, 2021
Welcome to Wealth Enhancement & Preservation’s Market Minute, where we get to update you on everything that happened in the financial markets this week.
We had another solid week in the indices last week, although pretty diverse across the three. The S&P 500 was up almost 1.3%, but the DOW was down 1.3% and the NASDAQ was in the middle and up about 0.3%. Our All-Weather score is still 40 out of 40, so we’re very optimistic. That strategy was up about 0.5% last week.
This week I want to give you a part two on inflation. We're obviously feeling it in our pocketbooks, when we go to the grocery stores, or put gas in our car; prices are up, and you can see that as well on this chart:
We've seen inflation stay in the 2% to 3% range for a very long time, but now we're seeing it in the 5% to 6% range. We don't know if it's going to stay at that level or come back down to the 2% or 3% level quite yet, but the question I'm getting lately is: “What does this all mean for the stock market, and what can we expect for returns?”
Historically, you can see here we have inflation at different levels. However, I'm gonna hone in on the 5% to 7% range, since that's where we're at:
You can see, again, the data is pretty diverse. In 1973 and 1977, the market was down 7% and 14%. However, we've got data points showing the S&P 500 up 20% to 25% when inflation was at that level. So, we're going to continue to monitor that for you, and make adjustments to our portfolios as necessary.
If you have any other questions for us, if you want a risk profile, or if you would like a retirement projection, please feel free to reach out or visit www.wealthep.com. Otherwise, stay tuned for our Market Minute next week! We hope you all have a Happy Thanksgiving!
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